The UK's energy transition has a workforce problem. But it isn't the one most people are talking about.

For years, the conversation has focused on the jobs that will be created by carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, offshore wind and industrial decarbonisation. Every major announcement is accompanied by grand proclamations about future employment, new opportunities and the workforce needed to support the transition.

Creating those opportunities is important. Vital, in fact.

But while we focus on the workforce we hope to build tomorrow, the very real risk is we lose the workforce we already have today.

Recent findings from Net Zero North West’s Why Industry Matters report should serve as a timely reminder of the action required, if not a stark warning about what’s in store if we don’t act. The report found that, in the North West, there are already 17,565 fewer workers aged 25-34 than workers aged 50-59 across manufacturing sectors.

At the same time, manufacturing continues to support 337,000 jobs across the region and remains a vital contributor to economic growth, exports and national resilience.

The message is clear. The challenge facing the UK is not simply attracting future talent into emerging industries.

It is retaining the expertise that already exists across our industrial and energy sectors. Particularly given the large number of workers in the higher age bracket who will likely retire within a decade or so.

The UK already has much of the expertise it needs

For years, industry has highlighted the transferability of skills between traditional oil and gas operations to emerging low-carbon technology developments. The evidence is overwhelming.

From engineering and project delivery through to operations, maintenance and process safety, the capabilities required to deliver the energy transition already exist within today’s workforce. These are skills developed over decades of delivering complex projects, operating critical infrastructure and managing safety-critical environments.

It should be viewed as one of the UK’s greatest competitive advantages and we are fortunate to have some of the most experienced energy professionals anywhere in the world. Their expertise will be critical to delivering CCS projects, decarbonising existing, traditional industries like cement, glass and chemicals, as well as supporting UK energy security and building the infrastructure required to deliver a lower-carbon economy.

The challenge is ensuring these skills remain available when we need them most.

A dangerous disconnect is emerging

And the UK doesn’t lack ambition – it’s the reality of delivery that complicates the picture..

Projects take time to develop and iInvestment decisions can be delayed, particularly when policy priorities chop and change. Regulatory and fiscal frameworks move around depending on the political persuasion of the Government-of-the-day, and what’s popular today may not be so next week.

The result is a disconnect between policymakers’ long-term vision, investors’ ability to supply capital and the workforce’s confidence.

People do not make career decisions based on what opportunities may exist in ten years’ time. They make decisions based on the opportunities that are in front of them.

For many experienced workers across the energy and industrial sectors, uncertainty has become the norm. While politicians and commentators debate the merits of future technologies, the people needed to deliver them are grappling with how they will pay the bills if their current job disappears or their new ‘green job’ never materialises.

We cannot assume today’s workforce will simply hang around until those opportunities arrive.

Some workers will retire, others will move to different sectors and a number will leave industry altogether.

Once that expertise is lost, rebuilding it is neither quick nor straightforward.

A graduate entering the workforce today cannot immediately replace someone with 20 or 30 years of operational experience. Decades of knowledge in project delivery, engineering, asset management and process safety cannot be learned overnight.

These capabilities are built over the course of whole careers.

Decarbonising industry requires the people already working in it

What’s often overlooked, too, is what decarbonisation actually means. The energy transition is regularly framed as the creation of entirely new industries and entirely new jobs, but the reality is much more nuanced.

A significant proportion of the UK’s net zero target requires decarbonisation of existing industries. Existing manufacturing sites will need to reduce their emissions, changing how they power their processes by switching from fossil fuels to electricity where possible. Where fuel switching alone won’t remove the majority of emissions, processes like CCS will be required to remove the majority of unavoidable emissions.

If we are serious about delivering net zero while strengthening economic resilience and energy security, we need policies that support long-term investment confidence, encourage project delivery and provide workers with clear reasons to remain within the industry.

Let’s move the debate along so that, yes, we consider how many jobs the transition can create in the future but also retain our focus on how we protect the skills, expertise and experience that already exists.